RSS FeedBecome a Bajillionaire Picking NFL Winners Using Quarterback Rating Stats
By Chris Malumphy
If you could predict which quarterback was going to have the best QB Rating in a particular game you could quickly become a millionaire. Oh heck, a million isn't what it used to be, you could easily become a bajillionaire. Here's why and how.
The quarterback with the better quarterback ranking in a game has won an outstanding 83% (40-8) of the time thus far in 2016. While the quarterback rating statistic has been much maligned in terms of ranking which passers are best, it does in a very general but remarkably precise way get to the essence of the modern game of football.
Quarterbacks with a game QB rating of 100.0 or better (minimum of 15 attempts for the purposes of this article), have a record of 26-7 (.788). Not too shabby. But it is even more impressive when you learn that of those 7 losses, six where to teams where the quarterback had an even higher rating, and the one exception was a one point loss in which the Saints led by Drew Brees (131.3) lost to the Raiders and Derek Carr (98.5) with the outcome of the game decided by Coach Jack Del Rio's gutsy decision to go for a two-point conversion rather than play for overtime. Thus, in games in which one team has a quarterback that reaches a 100.0+ rating and the other team does not, the likelihood of a win has been over 95% (20-1) in 2016.
| Losers with 100.0+ QB Ratings | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Loser | Name | QB Rating | Score | Winner | Name | QB Rating |
| 1 | Falcons | Matt Ryan | 112.6 | L 24 - 31 | Buccaneers | Jameis Winston | 125.1 |
| 1 | Saints | Drew Brees | 131.3 | L 34 - 35 | Raiders | Derek Carr | 98.5 |
| 1 | Colts | Andrew Luck | 119.5 | L 35 - 39 | Lions | Matthew Stafford | 128.6 |
| 1 | Cardinals | Carson Palmer | 104.7 | L 21 - 23 | Patriots | Jimmy Garoppolo | 106.1 |
| 2 | Bills | Tyrod Taylor | 112.8 | L 31 - 37 | Jets | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 116.5 |
| 2 | Raiders | Derek Carr | 115.0 | L 28 - 35 | Falcons | Matt Ryan | 131.5 |
| 3 | Lions | Matthew Stafford | 112.3 | L 27 - 34 | Packers | Aaron Rodgers | 129.3 |
Teams whose quarterbacks do not break a QB rating of 100.0+ for the game are likely to lose. Thus far in 2016 teams whose quarterbacks had game rankings of less than 100 are 22-41 (.349). Quarterbacks with a rating between 90.0 and 99.9 are 6-6 (.500). Those with ratings 80.0 to 89.9 are 5-9 (.357). Quarterbacks with game ratings of 70.0 to 79.9 are 7-10 (.412) and those with ratings of 69.9 or less are 4-16 (.200). Now, if you could only predict in advance what the likely QB ratings for the two quarterbacks in any game were going to be. There is no need to be precise, just guestimate which quarterback is likely to have the better day and if you are correct you'll pick winners over 80% of the time. If you also know that the quarterback you selected will have a rating of 100.0 or higher then your selection could win as often as 95% of the time.
| QB Game Rating Win-Loss Record | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Rating | Wins | Loses | Pct |
| 100.0+ | 26 | 7 | 0.788 |
| 90.0-99.9 | 6 | 6 | 0.500 |
| 80.0-89.9 | 5 | 9 | 0.357 |
| 70.0-79.9 | 7 | 10 | 0.412 |
| <= 69.9 | 4 | 16 | 0.200 |
Should be easy when you realize, for instance, that the Browns. 49ers and Jaguars haven't had a quarterback with a rating of 86.0 yet this year or that the defenses of the Broncos, Eagles, Texans and Titans haven't allowed the opposing quarterback to achieve a rating of 80.0 or more in any of their games. Or that neither the Jets nor the Lions have held a quarterback under 100.0 yet. But stay away from the Saints and the Falcons. Both Drew Brees and Matt Ryan can put up some really good numbers, but the Saints and Falcons defenses haven't held any quarterbacks under the high 90s yet. Also, beware of erratic quarterbacks. Ryan Fitzgerald put up some pretty good numbers during week two resulting in a rating of 116.5. Week three? Not so good: 18.2. Ouch.
Otherwise, it should be fairly easy. You can try it out at your own risk. Results may vary. Past results are no guarantee of future performance. State and federal laws may apply.
| 2016 Week 3 Passing Statistics | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Team | Opp | Att | C | Pct | Yds | Avg | TD | Pct TD | Int | Pct Int | Sacks | Yds Lost | Rating | Score |
| Trevor Siemian | Broncos | Bengals | 35 | 23 | 65.7 | 312 | 8.9 | 4 | 11.4 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 9 | 132.1 | W 29 - 17 |
| Aaron Rodgers | Packers | Lions | 24 | 15 | 62.5 | 205 | 8.5 | 4 | 16.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 4 | 129.3 | W 34 - 27 |
| Carson Wentz | Eagles | Steelers | 31 | 23 | 74.2 | 301 | 9.7 | 2 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 125.9 | W 34 - 3 |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | Bears | 24 | 19 | 79.2 | 248 | 10.3 | 1 | 4.2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 123.6 | W 31 - 17 |
| Tress Way | Redskins | Giants | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 118.7 | W 29 - 27 |
| Russell Wilson | Seahawks | 49ers | 23 | 15 | 65.2 | 243 | 10.6 | 1 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 17 | 114.9 | W 37 - 18 |
| Matt Ryan | Falcons | Saints | 30 | 20 | 66.7 | 240 | 8.0 | 2 | 6.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 15 | 113.2 | W 45 - 32 |
| Matthew Stafford | Lions | Packers | 41 | 28 | 68.3 | 385 | 9.4 | 3 | 7.3 | 1 | 2.4 | 3 | 17 | 112.3 | L 27 - 34 |
| Kirk Cousins | Redskins | Giants | 35 | 21 | 60.0 | 296 | 8.5 | 2 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 14 | 106.4 | W 29 - 27 |
| Alex Smith | Chiefs | Jets | 33 | 25 | 75.8 | 237 | 7.2 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 16 | 105.2 | W 24 - 3 |
| Drew Brees | Saints | Falcons | 54 | 36 | 66.7 | 376 | 7.0 | 3 | 5.6 | 1 | 1.9 | 2 | 17 | 97.5 | L 32 - 45 |
| Trevone Boykin | Seahawks | 49ers | 9 | 7 | 77.8 | 65 | 7.2 | 1 | 11.1 | 1 | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | 94.2 | W 37 - 18 |
| Ryan Tannehill | Dolphins | Browns | 39 | 25 | 64.1 | 319 | 8.2 | 3 | 7.7 | 2 | 5.1 | 1 | 8 | 93.9 | W 30 - 24 |
| Brian Hoyer | Bears | Cowboys | 49 | 30 | 61.2 | 317 | 6.5 | 2 | 4.1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 93.7 | L 17 - 31 |
| Jameis Winston | Buccaneers | Rams | 58 | 36 | 62.1 | 405 | 7.0 | 3 | 5.2 | 1 | 1.7 | 2 | 16 | 93.0 | L 32 - 37 |
| Sam Bradford | Vikings | Panthers | 28 | 18 | 64.3 | 171 | 6.1 | 1 | 3.6 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 18 | 93.0 | W 22 - 10 |
| Philip Rivers | Chargers | Colts | 39 | 26 | 66.7 | 330 | 8.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 11 | 92.9 | L 22 - 26 |
| Andrew Luck | Colts | Chargers | 37 | 24 | 64.9 | 331 | 8.9 | 1 | 2.7 | 1 | 2.7 | 2 | 14 | 91.2 | W 26 - 22 |
| Case Keenum | Rams | Buccaneers | 26 | 14 | 53.8 | 190 | 7.3 | 2 | 7.7 | 1 | 3.8 | 1 | 7 | 87.0 | W 37 - 32 |
| Cody Kessler | Browns | Dolphins | 33 | 21 | 63.6 | 244 | 7.4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3 | 17 | 85.9 | L 24 - 30 |
| Eli Manning | Giants | Redskins | 38 | 25 | 65.8 | 350 | 9.2 | 1 | 2.6 | 2 | 5.3 | 2 | 13 | 82.1 | L 27 - 29 |
| Terrelle Pryor | Browns | Dolphins | 5 | 3 | 60.0 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 81.2 | L 24 - 30 |
| Derek Carr | Raiders | Titans | 35 | 21 | 60.0 | 249 | 7.1 | 1 | 2.9 | 1 | 2.9 | 1 | 4 | 79.3 | W 17 - 10 |
| Derek Anderson | Panthers | Vikings | 1 | 1 | 100.0 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 79.2 | L 10 - 22 |
| Jacoby Brissett | Patriots | Texans | 19 | 11 | 57.9 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 6 | 72.9 | W 27 - 0 |
| Andy Dalton | Bengals | Broncos | 31 | 21 | 67.7 | 206 | 6.6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3.2 | 4 | 17 | 72.8 | L 17 - 29 |
| Joe Flacco | Ravens | Jaguars | 40 | 29 | 72.5 | 214 | 5.3 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 5.0 | 2 | 15 | 64.0 | W 19 - 17 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Steelers | Eagles | 44 | 24 | 54.5 | 257 | 5.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2.3 | 4 | 35 | 62.4 | L 3 - 34 |
| Brock Osweiler | Texans | Patriots | 41 | 24 | 58.5 | 196 | 4.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2.4 | 2 | 21 | 60.6 | L 0 - 27 |
| Blake Bortles | Jaguars | Ravens | 38 | 24 | 63.2 | 194 | 5.1 | 2 | 5.3 | 3 | 7.9 | 4 | 26 | 60.6 | L 17 - 19 |
| Tyrod Taylor | Bills | Cardinals | 25 | 14 | 56.0 | 119 | 4.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4.0 | 4 | 30 | 51.9 | W 33 - 18 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 49ers | Seahawks | 25 | 14 | 56.0 | 119 | 4.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 51.9 | L 18 - 37 |
| Cam Newton | Panthers | Vikings | 35 | 21 | 60.0 | 262 | 7.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 3 | 8.6 | 8 | 64 | 47.6 | L 10 - 22 |
| Marcus Mariota | Titans | Raiders | 33 | 17 | 51.5 | 214 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 6.1 | 1 | 2 | 46.8 | L 10 - 17 |
| Carson Palmer | Cardinals | Bills | 50 | 26 | 52.0 | 287 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 4 | 8.0 | 5 | 27 | 36.0 | L 18 - 33 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | Jets | Chiefs | 44 | 20 | 45.5 | 188 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.0 | 6 | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 18.2 | L 3 - 24 |
