RSS FeedCan Colin Kaepernick Rescue a Career that is Trending Downward?
By Chris Malumphy
The career of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been seriously regressing ever since he replaced Alex Smith midway in the 2012 season and led the team to the Super Bowl, ultimately losing to Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens.
Since then, Kaepernick's quarterback rating has declined each year, reaching a barely pedestrian 78.5 in 2015. His average yards gained per attempt have also declined each season while the percentage of times that he is sacked attempting to pass has risen. The percentage of passes Kaepernick throws for touchdowns has also dropped the past two years while his percentage intercepted, while still good, has generally risen since 2012.
| Colin Kaepernick's Career Statistics | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Att | Comp | Pct | Yds | Avg | TD | TD Pct | Int | Int Pct | Sacked | Yds Lost | Pct Sacked | QB Rating | Rushes | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2011 | 5 | 3 | 60.0 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 81.3 | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 218 | 136 | 62.4 | 1814 | 8.3 | 10 | 4.6 | 3 | 1.4 | 16 | 112 | 6.8 | 98.3 | 63 | 415 | 6.6 | 5 |
| 2013 | 416 | 243 | 58.4 | 3197 | 7.7 | 21 | 5.0 | 8 | 1.9 | 39 | 231 | 8.6 | 91.6 | 92 | 524 | 5.7 | 4 |
| 2014 | 478 | 289 | 60.5 | 3369 | 7.0 | 19 | 4.0 | 10 | 2.1 | 52 | 344 | 9.8 | 86.4 | 104 | 639 | 6.1 | 1 |
| 2015 | 244 | 144 | 59.0 | 1615 | 6.6 | 6 | 2.5 | 5 | 2.0 | 28 | 166 | 10.3 | 78.5 | 45 | 256 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick vs. Alex Smith Should the 49ers Have Seller's Remorse? | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Name | Team | Att | Comp | Pct | Yds | Avg | TD | TD Pct | Int | Int Pct | Sacked | Yds Lost | Pct Sacked | QB Rating | Rushes | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2011 | Alex Smith | 49ers | 445 | 273 | 61.3 | 3144 | 7.1 | 17 | 3.8 | 5 | 1.1 | 44 | 263 | 9.0 | 90.7 | 52 | 179 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 2011 | Colin Kaepernick | 49ers | 5 | 3 | 60.0 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 81.3 | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 2012 | Alex Smith | 49ers | 218 | 153 | 70.2 | 1737 | 8.0 | 13 | 6.0 | 5 | 2.3 | 24 | 137 | 9.9 | 104.1 | 31 | 132 | 4.3 | 0 |
| 2012 | Colin Kaepernick | 49ers | 218 | 136 | 62.4 | 1814 | 8.3 | 10 | 4.6 | 3 | 1.4 | 16 | 112 | 6.8 | 98.3 | 63 | 415 | 6.6 | 5 |
| 2013 | Colin Kaepernick | 49ers | 416 | 243 | 58.4 | 3197 | 7.7 | 21 | 5.0 | 8 | 1.9 | 39 | 231 | 8.6 | 91.6 | 92 | 524 | 5.7 | 4 |
| 2013 | Alex Smith | Chiefs | 508 | 308 | 60.6 | 3313 | 6.5 | 23 | 4.5 | 7 | 1.4 | 39 | 210 | 7.1 | 89.1 | 76 | 431 | 5.7 | 1 |
| 2014 | Alex Smith | Chiefs | 464 | 303 | 65.3 | 3265 | 7.0 | 18 | 3.9 | 6 | 1.3 | 45 | 229 | 8.8 | 93.4 | 49 | 254 | 5.2 | 1 |
| 2014 | Colin Kaepernick | 49ers | 478 | 289 | 60.5 | 3369 | 7.0 | 19 | 4.0 | 10 | 2.1 | 52 | 344 | 9.8 | 86.4 | 104 | 639 | 6.1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Alex Smith | Chiefs | 470 | 307 | 65.3 | 3486 | 7.4 | 20 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.5 | 45 | 235 | 8.7 | 95.4 | 84 | 498 | 5.9 | 2 |
| 2015 | Colin Kaepernick | 49ers | 244 | 144 | 59.0 | 1615 | 6.6 | 6 | 2.5 | 5 | 2.0 | 28 | 166 | 10.3 | 78.5 | 45 | 256 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick vs Blaine Gabbert in 2015 | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Att | Comp | Pct | Yds | Avg | TD | TD Pct | Int | Int Pct | Sacked | Yds Lost | Pct Sacked | QB Rating | Rushes | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Blaine Gabbert | 282 | 178 | 63.1 | 2031 | 7.2 | 10 | 3.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 25 | 164 | 8.1 | 86.2 | 32 | 185 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 244 | 144 | 59.0 | 1615 | 6.6 | 6 | 2.5 | 5 | 2.0 | 28 | 166 | 10.3 | 78.5 | 45 | 256 | 5.7 | 1 |
The Cleveland Browns, a team that is as desperate for a quarterback fix as any franchise can be, don't seem interested, nor should they be. Based on the 2015 statistics, the Browns quarterbacks, even Johnny Manziel, were statistically better this past season. This is the year the Browns take the top quarterback in the NFL Draft, not the year they try to resurrect the career of another flailing 49ers quarterback. They already tried that once with Jeff Garcia and the results were not pretty.
| Why the Browns Don't Need/Want 49ers Colin Kaepernick 2015 Passing and Rushing Statistics | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Team | Att | Comp | Pct | Yds | Avg | TD | TD Pct | Int | Int Pct | Sacked | Yds Lost | Pct Sacked | QB Rating | Rushing | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Josh McCown | Browns | 292 | 186 | 63.7 | 2109 | 7.2 | 12 | 4.1 | 4 | 1.4 | 23 | 137 | 7.3 | 93.3 | 20 | 98 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Johnny Manziel | Browns | 223 | 129 | 57.8 | 1500 | 6.7 | 7 | 3.1 | 5 | 2.2 | 19 | 141 | 7.9 | 79.4 | 37 | 230 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 49ers | 244 | 144 | 59.0 | 1615 | 6.6 | 6 | 2.5 | 5 | 2.0 | 28 | 166 | 10.3 | 78.5 | 45 | 256 | 5.7 | 1 |
The Los Angeles Rams (fancy saying that again after all these years) are in dire need of improved play at quarterback, but coach Jeff Fisher generally runs a pretty bland offense. Kaepernick might not be the best fit, although it may be the greatest opportunity. The Houston Texans also need to upgrade the quarterback position. Brian Hoyer is a decent player, but is probably not the long term answer. Until now, however, coach Texans coach Bill O'Brien has worked mostly with pocket passers. New York Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey coaxed a surprisingly good season out of Ryan Fitzgerald, but Fitzgerald tends to throw a fair amount of interceptions at just the wrong time and may not be the answer for a team that appears to be on the cusp of better things. In contrast, Kaepernick has tended to throw few interceptions throughout his career. Gailey has made nearly every quarterback he has worked with a bit better. Maybe he could do the same with Kaepernick.
For out-of-the-box thinking, consider the Buffalo Bills. Coach Rex Ryan is definitely an out-of-the-box thinker. In 2015 he unexpectedly turned the quarterback reins over to Tyrod Taylor who had a very nice season. The question in Buffalo is whether Taylor is the real thing or just a decent player who put up some good numbers. If there is any doubt, signing Kaepernick might be a way to create competition between two players who have similar skills. And if injury befalls the eventual starter, the team won't need to make many adjustments when the other player takes over.
In any case, where Colin Kaepernick ultimately lands will be one of the most interesting stories of this off season. He has shown he can be an exciting player. If he can get and remain healthy and find the right situation the sky is the limit, he has already shown that he can lead a team deep into the playoffs. That in itself may be worth taking a risk on.
