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Sunday, March 11, 2007

Raiders, Lions, Browns, Bucs and Cards All Need Offensive Line Help in a Big Way

It's difficult to determine which teams have good offensive lines and which don't. It generally comes down to a highly subjective analysis that is flawed due to the unavailability of any meaningful data to help separate the wheat from the chaff.

While some linemen have developed strong reputations over the years and the best merit annual trips to the Pro Bowl, there is really no meaningful way for the average fan to differentiate between linemen who are above average, mediocre and below average. In fact, it is often difficult to identify even the best offensive linemen since it often takes so long for a lineman to build a reputation and perhaps even longer for anyone to recognize that a once outstanding talent is now on the wane.

So, how can you tell if your favorite team should expend a high pick on a lineman in the draft. That question is much easier to answer because while there may not be enough information available to identify which players do and don't do an acceptable job of blocking, team statistics give a strong indication of which teams need improvement somewhere along the offensive line.

Take a look at the four key statistics that I think are worthy of studying to identify the best and worst offensive lines. In the modern world of the pass-happy NFL, if you can't protect your passer, you won't get very far, so the first measure is Sacks Allowed. In 2006, the three worst teams were the Raiders, Lions and Browns. Not unsurprisingly, those three teams also suffered the greatest number of quarterback sacks (Oakland, 2 wins, 72 sacks; Lions, 3, 62; Browns, 4, 54). And no team with 10 or more victories was less than average in protecting the passer. Although some sacks can undoubtedly be blamed on a quarterback's inability or unwillingness to get rid of the ball, and a few more can be assigned to the failure of a running back to pick up a blitz, sacks are generally the fault of the offensive line, especially when they come in big numbers.

The second key statistic in measuring the production of offensive lines is Yards Rushing. While there are significantly more questions involved in using yards rushing versus sacks to measure offensive line effectiveness (including quality of the running backs, whether the team's offensive scheme tilts more towards passing the football, whether the team frequently falls behind early and has to give up on running the ball, etc.), only the worst teams fail to pound out at least some yardage on the ground. The five worst teams in rushing yardage were also among the five worst teams in the number of wins (Lions, 3 wins, 1,129 yards rushing; Cardinals, 5, 1,338; Browns, 4, 1,335; Raiders, 2, 1,519; Buccaneers, 4, 1,523). Only two teams with winning records were significantly below average in yards rushing (Ravens and Jets).

Nevertheless, rushing yardage alone probably isn't a truly adequate indicator of whether an offensive line is effective in the running game. Average Yards Per Carry is also a helpful tool although it cannot stand on its own, as I will show. The five worst teams each had yards per carry that were significantly worse than average. But teams don't need to have gaudy yards per carry totals to amass winning records or to even gain a significant number of rushing yards. And gaudy rushing averages don't always result in victories. Check out the Falcons and 49ers. But average yards rushing does help augment total rushing yardage in gauging the effectiveness of an offensive line.

Finally, take a look at Rushing Touchdowns. This is a sleeper statistic in measuring the effectiveness of an offensive line. This statistic alone might explain why new Atlanta Falcon head coach Bobby Petrino is going to junk an offensive blocking scheme that resulted in the most yards rushing in the NFL for the past three seasons. In 2006, the Falcons had the most yards rushing (2,939) for the highest average (5.5 yards per carry) but only scored nine touchdowns on the ground. The Falcons running game was smoke and mirrors with Michael Vick gaining over a third of the yards. That the team could only run the ball into the endzone on nine occasions helps explain why it underperformed so badly and why Jim Mora is no longer the man in charge. In 2006, the teams with the fewest rushing touchdowns were the Raiders with 5, the Buccaneers with 6, the Browns and Panthers with 7, the Seahawks with 8 and the Lions, Bills, Falcons and Packers with 9. Of those teams, only the Seahawks eked out a winning record.

So who needs an offensive lineman like Wisconsin Tackle Joe Thomas. Well, probably every team in the league could find a place for him, but from the chart below, the Raiders, Lions and Browns were well below average in every category measuring the effectiveness of offensive line play. The Buccaneers, Cardinals and Texans weren't all that much better. From just looking at these stats, the offensive line of the Redskins may have been the most effective unit on that team. An improvement on defense and at quarterback could turn Washington around quickly.

The only team to be significantly above average in all categories measuring offensive line play was the Chargers. Unsurprisingly, they led all teams in victories in 2006.

If I were running an NFL team, I'd pay particular attention to one of the better stories of the 2006 season, the resurgence of the New York Jets and the success of rookie head coach Eric Mangini. Mangini learned his trade under the current NFL coaching genius Bill Belichick, one of the shrewdest talent evaluators in the business. Belichick knows the types of players it takes to build a winning team and he isn't afraid to send big names packing if they can't do the job that's needed. Mangini's team won ten games despite losing his best running back before the season began and with no other back picking up the slack. His team was led by a gimpy armed quarterback trying to return from injury. His first move was to use both of his two first round picks in the 2006 draft on offensive lineman, tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold. It will be very interesting to see if the Jets improvement is short-lived or long-lasting. I'm betting that even though Chad Pennington is still gimpy armed, and the team had few if any outstanding talents, the 2006 additions to the Jets offensive line will keep them in good stead for years to come. I'll also bet that incoming running back Thomas Jones raises the Jets average yards per carry behind the blocking of Ferguson and Mangold.